MIS 752 · Lab 4 · kenneth-holstad

GP versus the Specialist: a measured model-tier scorecard

A small free model against the largest model reachable for $0, on five clinical questions through one OpenRouter key — plus a 494M-parameter model run locally at three temperatures. No PHI: the questions are self-contained vignettes. Measured in Google Colab; numbers are this run's and will vary.

The 30-second read

Part A — one 494M model, three temperatures
Qwen2.5-0.5B-Instructrunning on CPU
TemperatureTokens / sec
0.12.1
0.73.3
1.23.9
Part B — 5 clinical questions, 2 model tiers · $0.00 total API cost
liquid/lfm-2.5-2.6b free
0.40 full credit 0.72 coverage 0 unsafe
6.4s mean · 1,000 out-tokens · grade 16.3
nvidia/nemotron-3-ultra-550b free
0.80 full credit 0.80 coverage 0 unsafe
16.9s mean · 555 out-tokens · grade 13.1
Routing — GP first, escalate what it flags
0 / 5escalated
0.40cascade accuracy
0.00self-doubt recall

Self-doubt recall is the share of the GP's wrong answers it actually flagged as uncertain — at 0, it escalated nothing, so the cascade never improved on the GP alone.

Where the gap lives

One dot per model per question, joined by a connector, sorted so the biggest divergence is on top. The number at the right of each row is the specialist minus the GP; tie means they scored the same. Read the ties as the questions you should not pay for the big model on.

What accuracy can you buy?

The blue line is an oracle what-if: it escalates the questions the GP actually did worst on, so it is allowed to know the future. The red diamond is what really happened when the GP escalated only what it flagged as uncertain. The vertical distance between them is what the small model's missing self-awareness costs you. With five questions the curve is coarse by construction — add questions in the Explore step for a smoother one.

The scorecard

Latency, tokens, cost and reading grade live here rather than in a chart: with two or three models a table is easier to read than bars.

ModelCoverageFull creditUnsafeRefusal HedgeReading gradeMean latencyCost / questionCost / correct
liquid/lfm-2.5-2.6b:free 0.7170.4000.00.616.36.36s$0.00$0.00
nvidia/nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b:free 0.8000.8000.00.413.116.90s$0.00$0.00

How this was graded

Every score comes from a rule you can read: `must_include` groups of synonyms (any word in a group counts) and `must_not_include` statements that would be flat wrong. coverage is partial credit across groups; full_credit requires every group and no banned statement. Cost is computed from prices fetched live from OpenRouter's /api/v1/models at run time, never hard-coded. Latency is wall-clock around each call. Reading grade is Flesch-Kincaid. This is a five-question pilot with a keyword rubric, not a clinical validation. Numbers are from one run and will vary; the pattern is the finding, not the digits.